Friday, October 24, 2008

Week 5 - Election Post

Swing states are becoming more and more important as the election race comes to an end. The five most finely balanced swing states are Ohio, Virginia, New Hampshire, Colorado and Nevada. In these states, neither candidate has a lead of more than one percent, according to the Real Clear Politics poll average.

Personally, I had no idea the election here in Virginia was so close. Virginia has 13 electoral college votes, so that makes it an important victory for either party. Bush won the state in both the 2000 and 2004 elections, but Obama has the Democrats working hard. The Mason poll has Virginia as close as 47% to 45%. That is within the margin of error, so everyone's vote counts in this swing state. I think with all of Obama's campaigning here, especially with his turn-out in, he is likely to win the state.

Another very important swing Leesburg state is Ohio. This is another chance for Obama to win a state that Republicans (Bush, for example) have won in the past. Obama is currently ahead in Ohio by a small margin, but taking into account the margin of error and the Bradley effect, he might not keep his lead when it comes time to vote. The current difference is 48% to 45% and I hope that is what it stays like until election day. I believe, despite the Bradley effect, come November, Obama will get the votes from Ohio as well.

Only time will tell, and until then, the best we can do is hope and VOLUNTEER!


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