Week 6 - Election Post

Well the election is just around the corner so it is time to make predictions:

For the presidential race I believe Obama will win the electoral vote 326 to 212. This is based on my prediction that Obama will win both Ohio and Florida of the swing states, and McCain will win Florida. As for the national vote, I estimate that Obama will receive 53% and McCain will receive 46%, and 1% will go to other candidates. I checked the Zogby International polls as well as CNN, and the results were clear. Obama will be our next president!

As for the senate race, I think Mark Warner will win by a considerable margin, considering he is more than twenty points ahead in the polls. The Republican candidate, Jim Gilmore, does not stand a chance. Warner has done very well as Governor of Virginia, and has the support of the state. 

In the two local House Races, I predict Frank Wolf, the Republican candidate, will beat Judy Feder (Democrat) in the 10th District. He is currently serving his 14th term in office as one of the Representatives from Virginia, and people apparently think he is doing a fine job. In District 11, I am not as sure of the outcome. I predict that the Democratic candidate, Gerry Connolly will win. He is endorsed by Governor Tim Kaine and washingtonpost.com has him ahead in the polls.

Well all I can say is I hope the Bradley Effect doesn't have too much of an effect on this election, and it goes exactly how I predict it too!!

Current Event #6

I could not believe the surrent event I wrote for class this week! Just yesterday, a Senator from Alaska named Ted Stevens was found guilty on seven felony counts. However, the senator will most likely face a less severe penalty. This seems unfair, I think the charges should be worse because he is a Senator. The wealthy and powerful get away with too much because they can afford to pay for the best. Senator Stevens is one of the most powerful Republican’s in Congress, and he was convicted of “lying of financial disclosure forms to conceal his receipt of gifts and expensive renovations to his house.” Stevens was not only the first convicted, but also the first U.S. senator to go on trial in more than twenty years. Despite his recent activity in court, Senator Stevens “vowed to fight for reelection to a seventh full term.” His name will remain on the ballot, giving him a shot at remaining in political power. I think it is ridiculous that a man guilty of felony should be allowed to run for political office. If this doe not prove what is wrong with our political system, I don't know what does. In presidential news, Sarah Palin decided not to endorse Stevens, but still said, “I’m confident Senator Stevens will do what’s right for the people of Alaska.” I can not be sure, but that sounds a little like endorsement to me.

If you want to read it, it is on washingtonpost.com here, http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-dyn/content/article/2008/10/27/AR2008102700289.html?wpisrc=newsletter

Week 5 - Election Post

Swing states are becoming more and more important as the election race comes to an end. The five most finely balanced swing states are Ohio, Virginia, New Hampshire, Colorado and Nevada. In these states, neither candidate has a lead of more than one percent, according to the Real Clear Politics poll average.

Personally, I had no idea the election here in Virginia was so close. Virginia has 13 electoral college votes, so that makes it an important victory for either party. Bush won the state in both the 2000 and 2004 elections, but Obama has the Democrats working hard. The Mason poll has Virginia as close as 47% to 45%. That is within the margin of error, so everyone's vote counts in this swing state. I think with all of Obama's campaigning here, especially with his turn-out in, he is likely to win the state.

Another very important swing Leesburg state is Ohio. This is another chance for Obama to win a state that Republicans (Bush, for example) have won in the past. Obama is currently ahead in Ohio by a small margin, but taking into account the margin of error and the Bradley effect, he might not keep his lead when it comes time to vote. The current difference is 48% to 45% and I hope that is what it stays like until election day. I believe, despite the Bradley effect, come November, Obama will get the votes from Ohio as well.

Only time will tell, and until then, the best we can do is hope and VOLUNTEER!

Current Event #5

I think immigration is a very important issue right now in the United States. I read the article, “Justices May Take Immigration Cases,” by Jerry Markon on washingtonpost.com. It talks about the Bush administration’s immigration policy and the controversy over charging illegal immigrats with aggravated identity theft. Last May immigration agents raided a meatpacking plant in Iowa. The illegal immigrants that were caught were given the choice of pleading guilty, or facing charges of aggravated identity theft and a possible two years in prison. Many took the deal and pleaded guilty to get out of serving that much jail time. This way of dealing with immigration problems is under attack and will likely end up in the Supreme Court. One of the issues is whether prosecutors can prove that the illegal immigrants knew the Social Security numbers they gave themselves belonged to other people, instead of just making them up. The article mentions two cases where illegal immigrants were convicted of aggravated identity theft. Federal judges ruled that they did not have to prove that the immigrants knew they were stealing someone’s identity. The Supreme Court may, or may not review these cases, but the issue is still important. There is a big difference between stealing someone's identity and making up a Social Security numer to get a job. The sentence that illegal immigrants have to serve, if they plead guilty is onlu five months, which is a bog difference from two years.

Week 4 - Election Post

In the presidential race, I looked at polling data on the USA Today website. On it were polls done by Gallup and Hotline. As of October sixteenth, Gallup had Obama at 51 and McCain at 44. Even taking into account the margin of error, this gives Obama a good lead going into the last few weeks before the election. The Gallup poll was taken using live telephone interviews and polled over twenty two hundred likely voters. The Hotline polls were more recent, being taken on October 19. Their poll put Obama at 49 and McCain still at 41. This poll shows them to be a little closer, but still with Obama in the lead by a few points. The Hotline poll also included a little more data. It showed the breakdown of party identification was 41% Democratic, 36% Republican, and 18% Independent.

I also looked at polls for the Senate race between Warner and Gilmore. Both the Suffolk poll and Survey USA showed Warner as having a substantial lead. The Suffolk poll gave Warner a thirty two point lead. Survey USA had Warner at sixty one and Gilmore at thirty one, giving the Democrat a thirty point lead. Survey USA polled six hundred and sixty six likely voters. From these polls it seems pretty clear who will be representing Virginia in the Senate for the next six years.

I believe that these polls are fairly accurate because they use a random sample and a large number of people. Also, I had to look at various different polls that were asking the same thing. The results were similar, so that supports that they were accurate to an extent. All polls will have a margin of error, but with a wide enough sample, it is minimal. However, even accurate polling can have great effects on a campaign. For example, a lot of funding is based on polls. If a candidate is way ahead in the polls of one state, they might withdraw some of the money going to that state because it could be better used in a state where the polls show the candidates being very close.

Volunteering 3!

For our third time volunteering for Obama, Carrie, Tyler, Ronny, and I decided to distribute flyers. When we first got to the campaign office, they said there was no work, but we were persistent and finally got to copy some flyers to distribute around Herndon. We went around to some parking lots and put them on cars, and we got some places, like starbucks, blooms, and robeks, to put the flyers on their bulletin boards. However, some places refused to put up political flyers, such as Great Harvest Bread Company. We also found out that we can not put them up in government buildings - we tried the community center. Also, when we got back to the campaign office, we found out that someone had called complaining about flyers on cars in the parking lot at the Herndon Community Center. We felt bad, but how were we supposed to know we couldn't put them in the parking lot either? Oh well, I guess we know now for next time. Vote Obama for President of the United States!!!!

Current Event #4

On washingtonpost.com, I read an article about recent polls in the presidential election. I was very interested because I have been volunteering for Obama and I wanted to read more about how he was doing. The article was called, "Obama Up by 10 Points as McCain Favorability Ratings Fall." The article says that Obama is gaining momentum and at the same time, McCain is losing ground in his campaign. Part of the blame is laid on McCain's new negative campaigning. The story says that he has been spending too much time focusing on attacking Obama and not enough time spreading the word about his own policies. Voters said the debate last Tuesday night did not change their opinions much. However, something must be changing the minds of former McCain supporters. There are only about thirteen percent of undecided voters left so both campaigns need to step up their exposure and spread the word. I have high hopes for Obama's campaign as more and more television ads are on every night. It might just be a money thing, but I do not see nearly as many McCain campaign advertisements on when I watch TV.

Week 3 - Election Post

I think the race for the Senate is very important, so I decided to look into Mark Warner and Jim Gilmore. Mark Warner is the democratic candidate and has served as governor of Virginia from 2002 until January 2006. He believes in a new energy program that will invest in renewable energy and eliminates our dependence on foreign oil. Warner's stand on health care is to make sure every American has access to affordable, universal health care coverage– and 21st century health care must also emphasize prevention. On the war in Iraq, Warner's policy sounds a lot like Obama's, but with three important words inserted in the middle, "develop a responsible plan - without artificial timelines - to begin to bring our brave military men and women home from Iraq." I think Warner is a good choice for the Senate, and I hope he will be sitting in the Senate, supporting President Obama in 2009! On the other side of the ballet is Jim Gilmore, the republican candidate. He was the 68th Governor of the Commonwealth of Virginia, and "since the expiration of his term of office, he has seen distinguished service on behalf of both his party and his country." I think the fact that Gilmore has been out of office will hurt him a little, giving Warner the advantage of coming right from the Governor's office. As for Gilmore's policies he hopes to decrease dependence on foreign oil by increased oil and gas production in the United States. He believes there is a need to implement tax reforms to will help people buy health insurance and encourage them to maintain health savings accounts. I feel the most important issue is clean energy and energy dependence. I think Warner's plan will work better for America because it has a long term solution that is good for the environment and will work with the national government to stop our dependence on foreign oil. Gilmore hopes to increase oil and gas production, domestic refinery capacity, and use of nuclear energy. This will help decrease our dependence on foreign oil, but not our dependence on oil. With our environment the way it is, politicians need to be addressing it in their energy plans, and I don't see Gilmore coming up with any ideas to stop Americans from polluting the environment and burning more fossil fuels than ever. In the polls that I have found, Warner seems to have the election in the bag, being over 20 points ahead!

Current Event #3

I signed up for washingtonpost.com to e-mail me political related news stories, and I was interested with one that said "Registration Gains Favor Democrats." The new voters are mostly Democratic, as in Florida, Democratic registration gains this year are more than double those made by Republicans. The Obama campaign expects the newly registered Democrats to swell even more later this month as elections offices process the tens of thousands of registrations still pouring in. many of these newly registered voters

Joseph Hodges, left, and others are in swing states such as, Ohio, Florida, Georgia, North Carolina,

register to vote Friday at a table set Virginia, Indiana, Missouri, Colorado, Iowa, Nevada and New Mexico.

up by Obama supporters at the Obama has been campaigning hard in these key states that Bush won in 2004,

Franconia-Springfield Metro station but he will have to wait until election day to find out if his hard

in Fairfax County. work paid off. Young voters are also a big part of Obama's voter registration plan. Overwhelmingly the youth vote favors Obama over McCain, so the more that go to the polls means more votes for Obama.

Volunteering 2!

Last night I went back to the Obama campaign office to do some more volunteer work. With me were, Carrie, Tyler, and Sarah! We were kind of hoping to make phone calls this time, but once again we found ourselves walking door to door. At least we didn't have to deal with the rain, but it still got dark pretty fast. We started out well, the first two houses we went to, not only answered the door, but were for Obama!! The second guy even tried to give us some tips for getting young voters to the polls. As we moved on though fewer and fewer houses answered the door, even if they were home! We could see them in the kitchen, but they didn't bother coming. Also, more people simply refused to answer our questions. They said they did not have time, or wouldn't share their views. We had one house on our list that had a McCain/Palin yard sign. Thank goodness they weren't home! We did end the night on a good note though. Our last house had two people that were voting for Obama, and their little boy even offered us a snack for our hard work! Back at the office, we had to tally all of our information that we collected. It was a little sad to see how little we had actually done. We knocked on about forty doors, but only got information for twenty or so people.

Current Event #2

I was looking on washingtonpost.com when an article entitled, "On the Sunny Beaches of Brazil, A Perplexing Inrush of Penguins," caught my eye. The penguins were washed by ocean currents more than 2,000 miles north from their homes in southern Argentina near the bottom of the world. Every year a few penguins get washed ashore, but this year over 1,000 peguins have turned up in Brazil. Locals are making an effort to help these penguins by taking care of them, and even trying to ship them home. I am very worried about global warming, and I wondered if it could have anything to do with this phenominon. Sure enough, as I was reading the article mentioned climate change and its implication in melting polar ice caps. The penguins, who swim North looking for food, have stopped turning around soon enough because of the colder water temperatures. They then get pulled to far North, to Brazil, by the ocean currents. Unfortunately, there is not a firm scientific grasp of where and why currents end, so it is hard to find a definate cause and/or solution.

Week 2 - Election Post

The state issue I find the most important is immigration, especially in the Herndon area. One of the major problems is how long it takes for people to apply to be a legal immigrant. People are unwilling to wait the years it takes to enter the country through the system. There are about twelve million illegal immigrants in the United States and it is unreasonable to believe that we can simply expose them and send them back to their countries. Obama plans to revise our immigration system so that families can stay together and immigrate to the U.S. legally. He also wants to create a plan to help aliens come out of hiding and become citizens, but perhaps his point that I find most important is working with Mexico to promote economic development to decrease illegal immigration to the United States.

I watched the debate last Friday, between Senators Obama and McCain, and I was a little disappointed at how it started. The economy was included on the list of national issues, so I had been excited to see where they stood. It took a while for the debate to even get going. For a while both candidates seemed to avoid actually debating any particular point. Throughout the debate they seemed to not answer questions directly, but instead twist it to talk about what they wanted to say. The biggest national issue is the economy and the $700 billion bailout of Wall Street. Many people are worried about the economy, so it was important for the presidential candidates to give their opinions on the bailout plan. Obama said the bailout plan included "some core principles that I set forth," such as strong oversight, taxpayers sharing in any dividends, and "reciprocity" through relief to homeowners, and limits on CEO compensation. Obama continued to suggest that he would support a measure that included those four provisions. McCain opened with stressing the importance of Democrats and Republicans working together in Washington DC. I found this a strange point to be making in a debate because it was a sort of cop-out. He did not focus on what he had done to help the plan, but instead on what was everyone was doing together. Later, when asked if he was going to vote for the bailout he said "sure" then moved on to another point. Obama and Mcain were then asked to explain what they would do as president to lead the country out of the financial crisis. McCain said he would cut government spending by eliminating earmarks on federal bills. He added that Obama "has asked for $932 million of earmark pork-barrel spending." This is an example of where he isn't really answering the question, but twisting the question to make his opponent look bad. Obama responded well by saying that earmarks did need to be cut, but only the unessecary ones. He also added that, "earmarks [only] account for $18 billion in lastyear's budget" and McCain is proposing "$300 billion in tax cuts to some of the wealthiest corporations and individuals in the country." I think Obama did a better job of responding to accusations than McCain did, but that is probably because Obama's accusations have a stronger base. I believe our economy needs to be fixed before any of the other issues can be addressed because we do not have the money or stability to deal with other crises right now.

I think that today electronic media plays a huge role in the November election. It is the easiest and fastest way to hear about news in our country, and, for many people, it is the only way they hear about the issues. Why would someone read an article about the war in Iraq if they could just listen about it on the radio on the way to work? Also campaign ads come on during normal television programs, so even people that do not usually pay attention to politics are exposed to Obama and McCain.